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DR.Ahmed Hany: The Impact of Ukraine War on Health and Life

Professor of Allergy, Chest and Environmental Medicine at the Military Medical Academy

Professor of Allergy, Chest and Environmental Medicine at the Military Medical Academy

As the world passes a transitional period between a falling world order and an emerging new one, the Ukraine war came to sophisticate the situation.

Between the war and the climate changes there are two groups of people who decipher what happens according to their ideological beliefs. The first group are the people who believe in conspiracy theory.

The second group are mainly the political scientists who analyze the situation as if they watch a movie or a game of chess and their predictions change from day to day. In fact both groups have good reason for their thinking.

In strategy it is not enough to do your homework to achieve your goals but you have to prevent others from achieving it before you do, by putting obstacles on their road or by finishing them in a way or another.

When the Russian army entered Azov factory, media reports told about Western secret projects to produce biological and chemical weapon and spreading the microbes to induce diseases among world populations. Other reports told about killing five billion citizens to give better chances for the rest to live in welfare.

More extreme thinking was about keeping the golden billion only and killing seven billions around the world.

The Russian government told that it would publish the data obtained from the factory and a file would be submitted to the United Nation claiming that the US and other Western countries are behind the production of these weapons, yet it neither published nor submitted any documents supporting the claims.

To explore the possibilities of the above mentioned catastrophes it is better to analyze them from a scientific point of view about the capability to induce them and more important the shape of life after they happen.

The first possibility is killing five billions or even more by the use of nuclear weapons that many countries acquire them and they declare it, like the US, Russia, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea.

Other few countries also acquire them but they do not declare their possession like Israel. What governs the strategic rule to use such weapons is the zero game or in other words complete destruction for all.

It is not only the radiation that will leave the plant earth not suitable for life but also the nuclear winter that will continue for many years as the nuclear clouds will prevent the sun rays from reaching the earth and reflexing them to the space.

No winner and no life for any one will be the end result. Russia declared that it will not use nuclear weapons unless there is existential threat to its nation or lands.

That means it will not be the first using them, however it will not be the second also. All global forces try to avoid this option.

The second option to kill three billions or five billions or even leaving only one billion alive is the chemical and/or biological warfare. There are two types, inducing acute illness by a toxin or a microbe on the short term and this type is used against military forces.

The second type is inducing chronic illness that affects the health of people preventing them from normal life including work, feeding and decreasing the life span on the mid and long terms.

This is the environmental warfare

That is what the Russian government claims the West conspires to do through microbes killing people and animals, and toxins ruining land, water, air and plants and later on inducing sever chronic diseases for citizens around world.

Before discussing the possibility that a global force declared an environmental war on the world there are two important observation that the conspiracy theory advocates focus on to prove their cause.

The Covid-19 virus started to spread all over the world on 2019 and badly affected the global economy especially in the Western countries, Russia and China. Stories about who was behind the leak of the virus from a biological lab in China that is financed by the US and French governments or from the bats eaten by Chinese people were argued while economies were drastically suffering.

The other important observation is that global draught that dried up rivers in Western Europe, the US, China, India and other regions started 2018 and the level of water in these rivers was decreasing annually. For conspiracy advocates, officials did not take any decisions to deal with the situations during those years.

Climate scientists usually use mathematical models to predict the changes.

The question is, whether the Russians used a mathematical model to adjust their time of the war on Ukraine during the peak of draught that put more stress on the European politicians as the next winter will witness shortage of food and fuels in Europe.

Both Russia and Ukraine claim that the army of the other country tries to destroy the Zaporizhzhya nuclear reactor.

If that happens the few crops that will be left after draught in Europe will be contaminated by radiation.

This terrible scenario will lead to famine not only in Europe but also in other countries that are dependent of imported wheat and other crops. Does Russia take revenge for the fall of Soviet Union by destroying Europe? No one can tell.

Apart from the Russian actions, the claims that the US and other Western countries try to spread diseases from Azov biological and chemical labs the same question is asked.

Can microbes and chemicals kill three to five billion citizens?

History tells about many epidemics of plague and influenza that killed millions. With the advantage of antibiotics man had a good tool to contain the bacterial diseases and with vaccines many microbial diseases could be controlled.

However during the last two decades both Avian Influenza, SARS, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS made some epidemics and there was neither vaccine nor drugs for them.

The genetic engineering gave a chance for researchers to modify viruses and to construct new ones with high virulence; covid is an example.

At the same time it allows inventing vaccines and drugs for the new viruses. In theory a global power can produce an unknown virus that spreads all over the world and keeps both the vaccine and the drugs for their elite and other selected persons in other countries.

Accompanied with famines due to climate changes many will die in poor countries and in the less advanced countries. Medications will be another influential weapons in the global race.

Another fact that was established after the waves of corona epidemic is that the patients who contracted corona not all cured.

Many suffer from what is called Post-Covid syndrome that causes fatigue, difficulty in thinking (fogy brain), cardiorespiratory symptoms that may last for years.

Researchers are not sure about the period that these patients continue to suffer or whether their condition will become chronic.

For instance thirty percent of covid patients live with radiological lung shadows and difficult breath.

Whether these symptoms affect the life span or not, the question has no definite answer.

In fact not only covid that affects the health and life after being cured but also there are many other viruses do the same most of them kill the Africans now.

People who have the post covid syndrome or to generalize post viral syndrome may leave their jobs and their conditions deteriorate.

We have to follow up the epidemiological situation all over the world and to finance the pharmaceutical research. Keeping good international relations with global forces may help to have the drugs and vaccines needed to contain any epidemic.

Conclusion:

The Ukraine war may not be a threat for nuclear war but the destruction of nuclear reactor with the draught wave will have dire effects on the world especially Europe.

In theory any global force can produce microbes and keeps the treatment to its citizen or elite. We have to spend more on pharmaceutical and vaccine research and industry while observing the global epidemiological situation and keeping contacts with international research centers and doing our best to transfer the technology needed.

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