Zeina Moneer, PhD: Climate Change and Fragility in MENA: Insights from the GCF Dialogue in Oman

Strengthening Regional Climate Action in the Middle East: 

Hosting the GCF Dialogue in Oman: Regional significance

Between 14-16 December 2025, the Environment Authority of Oman hosted the Green Climate Fund (GCF) Sub-Regional Dialogue for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States that was held in Muscat, highlighting the Sultanate’s expanding role in regional and global climate initiatives.

The significance of this regional dialogue lies not only in its timing—in the wake of the intensified global climate negotiations in COP30—but also in its focus on concrete mechanisms for climate finance, adaptation, and regional cooperation in one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable and conflict plagued regions.

The MENA Region as a Climate Hotspot: Vulnerability, Conflict, and Finance Gaps

MENA region is described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC as a climate change hotspot — one of the driest and most water-scarce regions in the world — warming at nearly twice the global average. Despite its minimal historic contributions to carbon emissions, the region is hit hard by climate disasters, while facing mounting debt, limited fiscal space, and limited economic resilience. Furthermore, the climate risks are deeply entangled with political instability, armed conflict, and economic fragility in countries such as Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, and Yemen. Despite climate change compounding impacts in the MENA countries—particularly those affected by conflict—, the MENA countries have historically faced significant barriers to accessing international climate finance.

Rethinking climate finance models for conflict-affected contexts

Against this backdrop, the December 2025 GCF dialogue marked an important shift towards region-specific climate governance. At its core, the dialogue aimed to improve access to climate finance for fragile and conflict-affected states by fostering direct engagement between national governments, regional institutions, international donors, and GCF- accredited entities. Rather than emphasizing new pledges, the dialogue focused on operational questions: how to build the institutional capacities of the MENA countries to improve their access to GCF resources, to design fundable adaptation projects, and integrate climate priorities into national development plans.

Adaptation as a Priority in conflict-affected contexts

Furthermore, the dialogue foregrounded adaptation priorities such as water resource management, climate-resilient agriculture, early-warning systems for extreme heat, and infrastructure capable of withstanding droughts and floods. By doing so, it helped framing climate change as threat multiplier compounding existing vulnerabilitiess, which require tailored, conflict-sensitive solutions and collaborative efforts to build resilience among vulnerable communities in the region.

Climate Change and fragility: Two sides of the same crisis

Equally important was the dialogue’s explicit recognition of the intersection between climate change and fragility particularly in conflict-affected zones. In such fragile contexts, protracted conflicts weaken institutions and compromise governance systems, making It harder for communities to cope with and bounce back from climate disasters. In this context, the dialogue acknowledged that standard climate finance models—designed for politically stable contexts—are often ill-suited to conflict contexts. This recognition opens the door for more flexible funding modalities, simplified procedures, and partnership-based approaches that can directly contribute to stability and support sustainable recovery in such fragile contexts.

Regional Cooperation and Decarbonization: Oman’s Role in the Gulf’s Green Transition

From a regional perspective, the GCF dialogue also strengthens horizontal cooperation in the region particularly given that the climate action has traditionally been fragmented, with limited coordination beyond bilateral initiatives or donor-driven projects. The dialogue particularly underscores Gulf countries’ increasing concern with renewable energy and just transition pathways aligned with national decarbonization plans. This is particularly relevant for Oman which sets ambitious green transition goals, underpinned by its commitment to net-zero emission by 2050, Vision 2024 aiming for renewable energy to contribute around 30% of total electricity generation by 2030 and 50% by 2040. Hosting such dialogue highlights Oman’s efforts to strengthen institutional capacity, unlock climate finance, and support a just, low-carbon transition within the Gulf context.