DR.Ahmed Hany: Mutation of Microbes”Causes and discovery”
Professor of Allergy, Chest and Environmental Medicine

During the last few years the world witnessed the Covid-19 endemic that its impact affected the four corners.
In fact the virus was not a new one as its family caused SARS and MERS, two limited respiratory epidemics in China and the Middle East.
The Influenza virus is known to mutate yearly and sometimes causes serious epidemics with high mortality rates; history told about the Spanish Influenza that killed around forty millions at the beginning of the last century.
Nearly any bacteria can mutate to avoid the antibiotics and some serious infections leave doctors helpless.
The causes of the mutations are many, some are natural and others are man induced.
The natural causes of mutations reflect the ability of the microbes to adapt to its environmental changes.
Adaptation is the cause of survival of about all living creature that escaped the extinction due to surrounding changes of the environment into which they live.
Among the natural causes to mutate is the herd immunity developed in host into the virus or the bacteria live.
It is known the Influenza virus has high virulence and widely spread in communities.
People develop the antibodies that prevent further infection and kill the virus so that the virus changes its genetic arrangement to evade these antibodies.
In Influenza it is called anti-shift when the changes is minor and it happens yearly.
If it is major change of genes it is called anti-drift and it happens nearly every ten years.
This is a complete natural mutation.
Environmental changes can cause changes in microbes and change them more aggressive.
Air pollution in cities makes some variants of mycobacteria high virulence and decrease the natural immunity of the host’s respiratory system.
Tuberculosis returned aggressively due to the AIDS that destroys the host immunity and due to air pollution in big cities.
Forest fires, desertification and draughts oblige animals to move to inhabited areas with the microbes they carry to infect people and some microbes mutate to suit the internal environment of the humans body.
Climate changes do the same.
Man induced mutations of microbes may be due to ignorance or evil actions.
The uncontrolled use of antibiotics is the first cause of bacterial resistance to antibiotics due to ignorance and dispensing drugs without a medical advice.
This happens in many third world countries.
Other microbes just acquire the ability to resist the antibiotics due to accommodation and genetic mutations.
Unfortunately some big powers induce mutations in viruses and bacteria to use them as a weapon of mass destruction against other countries.
They may use the microbes in wars against armies and during peace times to kill people and to destroy economies of other countries.
The technicality of producing biological weapons is much easier than producing nuclear bombs.
Therefore experts call the biological weapons the poor’s’ mass destructive weapons.
The impact of the mutation of microbes on the health sector is drastic.
To begin with the hospitals aggressive organisms may contaminate the operation theaters and the intensive care units killing patients and sometimes they lead to closure of the hospital for weeks until it is sterilized again.
Moreover when organisms cause epidemics mutations are the reason for many waves of the epidemic.
During the last three years Covid-19 caused at least two to three waves of infections every year due to the different mutated variants.
Until now there is no good explanation for its several mutations.
The Covid-19 epidemic showed that the global health system is not that efficient to confront wide spread epidemic and the health sector needs upgrading infrastructure and new organization and policies to make it reliable to deal with the global epidemics.
Experts predicts that epidemics will happen in the near future and the health sectors should prepare themselves to manage that.
Modernization of the global health sector should be a priority.
The climate changes especially increase of the temperature help organisms to grow sooner and to be more virulent.
They may kill the host animals and cause extinction of some species adding to the problem of losing the biodiversity.
At the same time when they are transmitted to infect humans more severe illness may kill some and leave some handicapped.
When the Covid 19 caused several waves it harmed the economy by closure and by allocating more budgets for the health sector.
Moreover the post covid syndrome left many unable to work.
All economies had less growth rates and some especially in poor countries had negative growth rates.
Until now no one can predict the long term drawbacks of the disease and its waves are still happening.
The question that should be answered sincerely, is the world and its global health system ready to confront another epidemic whether the cause a known or unknown microbe?
For years the health system focused on the providing of services in hospitals.
The preventive medicine rules may be applied in advanced countries but in poor countries it is hard to say that they are properly applied due to loss of resources.
There is not a global system that follow up the epidemiological situation and what the WHO does is to receive reports from countries and spread it to other countries.
The reform of the global health system needs different policies that oblige countries to notify of the presence of epidemics soon.
At the same time upgrading of the resources in poor countries is desperately needed.
Another field that should be upgraded is the biostatistics and the surveillance methods in the third world countries.
Any unknown disease that spreads should be taken into consideration and the WHO should participate in its discovery in an early stage.
New mutated microbes and the microbes that are resistant to antibiotics should be declared soon with the protocols to manage them.
Conclusion:
The environmental role in mutation of microbes cannot be neglected and should be investigated.
The movement of animals due to forest fires, draughts and other environmental changes will spread diseases and may induce mutation.
The high temperature is a factor in mutating organisms.
The global health system needs to be upgraded and reformed so that it can deal with future epidemics.




